Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket38¢ → 0¢

Sep 8 forecast

Most final-week polls sit inside the target bracket, so a Moderate Party vote share from 16% to 18% is narrowly favored.

The newest Ipsos and Novus readings, Verian’s survey and the weighted polling average all place the Moderates inside the target range. An Indikator reading at 18.4% demonstrates upper-side risk, while tactical leakage to the Liberals creates lower-side risk. Rapid final-week voter movement leaves the narrow bracket far from secure, but the concentration of current measurements inside it makes an in-range finish narrowly favored.

Points to YES

The weighted polling average places Moderate support near the middle of the target range.
As of September 8, the weighted polling average put the Moderates at 17.5%.
The freshest individual poll places the Moderates comfortably inside the bracket.
On September 8, Ipsos placed the Moderates at 17.4%, down half a percentage point from its previous measurement.
A recent rebound still leaves Moderate support just inside the upper boundary.
On September 7, the Novus voter barometer placed the Moderates at 17.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from its previous poll.

Points to NO

At least one recent poll already places the Moderates above the bracket.
An Indikator Opinion poll dated September 4 placed the Moderates at 18.4%.
Tactical support for the Liberals is pulling votes away from the Moderates and widening the lower-side risk.
On September 7, Novus assessed that the Liberals were chiefly receiving support votes from Moderate and Christian Democratic voters.

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