Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
Fresh Hormuz attacks restored a risk premium with October WTI near the threshold, so an above-$85.49 settlement is favored but far from guaranteed.
October WTI is at 85.4665, only a few cents below the $85.49 cutoff, after trading as high as $86.58 on August 31. The U.S.-Iran exchange and tanker incident support a persistent disruption premium, while recovering Gulf exports and added OPEC+ supply cap the upside. With the contract already oscillating across the line and one session left, an above-threshold settlement is more likely, though a small reversal could leave it below the cutoff.
- Renewed military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz supports a disruption premium in crude oil.On August 31, oil prices gapped higher after the United States struck Iranian missile launchers and Iran reportedly retaliated against regional U.S. assets.
- October WTI has already traded meaningfully above the settlement threshold during the final session before resolution.On August 31, the October 2026 WTI contract traded between $84.11 and $86.58 per barrel after opening at $84.69.
- Depleted global inventories leave oil prices sensitive to any further supply interruption.CME Group commentary on August 25 said global oil stocks had declined by 410 million barrels since late February 2026.
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports reduce the scarcity pressure behind the latest oil rally.On August 31, Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of prewar levels.
- Additional OPEC+ production provides a modest counterweight to geopolitical supply fears.OPEC+ approved a 188,000-barrel-per-day production increase for September 2026.
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