Will Ethereum be at or above $2,450 on Aug 26?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+72%$100 paper stake

Kalshi58¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES58¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 26

Forecast updatedAug 26

A powerful weekly rally has kept Ethereum near the cutoff, so a price at or above $2,450 at 5 p.m. is favored.

Ethereum enters the final hours almost exactly on the required level after a strong rally backed by fresh investment demand. Several same-day readings were above the threshold, and recent trading has repeatedly found support around the lower end of the current range. The cushion is minimal, however, while overbought momentum, resistance near $2,500, and heavy derivatives activity leave substantial risk of a sudden reversal before the deadline.

Points to YES

Several same-day readings were above the threshold, making another modestly positive reading at the deadline more plausible despite the narrow cushion.
At midnight EDT on August 26, Ethereum was $2,463.07, while other supplied same-day displays showed prices of $2,465.58, $2,466.57, and $2,471.84.
The recent rally and repeated trading above $2,400 provide momentum and nearby support that can carry Ethereum back above the cutoff after brief dips.
On August 24, Ethereum was $2,504.46 after gaining 28.02% over seven days, with a reported trading base between $2,400 and $2,510.
Strong recent fund inflows add spot demand that can help absorb selling and sustain the rally through the deadline.
Spot Ether ETFs added $115.6 million on August 24, their sixth consecutive session of inflows, bringing the six-session total to about $812.8 million.

Points to NO

A supplied August 26 reading was already just below the threshold, so only a small adverse move is needed for the deadline price to miss.
On August 26, Ethereum was reported at $2,447.27, down $23.31 for the day and below the $2,450 threshold.
Overbought momentum and derivatives-heavy trading increase the chance that a small decline triggers forced selling before the deadline.
On August 26, the 14-day RSI was reported above 85, while daily derivatives volume exceeded $74 billion against roughly $5 billion in spot volume.

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