Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,000 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake

Kalshi22¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO78¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin remains roughly 4% below the strike with less than two days remaining, so Bitcoin settling at or above $81,000 on September 4 is a long shot.

Bitcoin is near $77,800 and needs a rapid rally of roughly 4% to reach the strike. September 3 trading remained below $78,150, while apparent demand had turned negative and recent gains created more potential selling liquidity. Fresh ETF inflows and a still-bullish broader technical structure leave room for a sharp rebound, but the short window makes an $81,000-or-higher settlement a long shot.

Points to NO

Bitcoin remains roughly 4% below $81,000 with less than two days until settlement.
Bitcoin was quoted at $77,949.26 at 08:08 UTC on September 3.
September 3 trading has yet to approach the strike.
By 08:08 UTC on September 3, Coinbase Pro had traded between $76,929.29 and $78,149.99.
Immediate demand has weakened despite Bitcoin's recent rebound.
Bitcoin's Apparent Demand indicator turned negative again around September 2.

Points to YES

Spot Bitcoin fund demand rebounded after the prior session's outflows.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $101.15 million on September 2.
Bitcoin's broader technical structure still allows a sudden upside move.
On September 3, Bitcoin remained above its major daily exponential moving averages, although momentum suggested a pause or consolidation.

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