Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Aug 27?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi44¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO56¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 27

Forecast updatedAug 27

Multiple August 27 price records remain below $79,500 after momentum faded, so Bitcoin reaching the threshold that day is unlikely.

The strongest August 27 records show Bitcoin below the threshold, following repeated failures to hold gains above $80,000 and heavy liquidation of leveraged buyers. Profit-taking and increased exchange deposits add pressure after a rapid rally. Continued spot-fund inflows and Bitcoin’s recent ability to move several thousand dollars quickly keep the threshold within reach, but another sustained upswing is not the most likely outcome.

Points to YES

Persistent spot-fund inflows provide genuine buying support and could fuel a fast rebound toward the threshold.
Between August 17 and August 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded seven consecutive sessions of net inflows totaling about $2.57 billion.
The recent rally shows Bitcoin can cover the remaining distance quickly when short covering and spot demand align.
On August 27, Bitcoin was reported to have accelerated from a $60,000–$65,000 summer range to above $80,000 in just over a week.

Points to NO

August 27 benchmark readings remain below the threshold, leaving Bitcoin dependent on a renewed advance during the remaining window.
On August 27, the CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index recorded $78,854.87, with a daily high of $79,026.96.
The rally has repeatedly failed to hold above $80,000, making another immediate push through the threshold less likely.
On August 25, Bitcoin fell as low as $78,111 after reaching a fourteen-week high of $81,265.
Leveraged-long liquidations and position unwinding have damaged near-term upward momentum, increasing the chance that rebounds fade.
On August 26, Bitcoin was reported below $78,000 after trading above $81,000, while $270 million in long positions had been liquidated.

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