Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,000 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Kalshi62¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

Bitcoin starts 2.61% above the threshold with only days remaining, so a September 4 settlement at or above $77,000 is favored.

Bitcoin is around $79,066, leaving a 2.61% cushion above the threshold with little time remaining. That buffer and continued institutional demand make an above-threshold settlement favored. Cooling momentum, weakening spot buying and Bitcoin’s recent drop below $77,000 leave substantial downside risk before settlement.

Points to YES

Bitcoin begins the final days with a modest but meaningful cushion above $77,000.
On September 1, Bitcoin’s settlement-basis price was approximately $79,066, or 2.61% above the threshold.
The broader uptrend remains intact, with nearby technical support still above the settlement threshold.
On September 1, Bitcoin was above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, with immediate support identified near $77,862.
Institutional inflows remain elevated despite slowing from the previous week.
On August 31, the latest weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF inflow of $946 million remained above Glassnode’s high statistical band.

Points to NO

Spot-market selling pressure is overtaking buying activity as trading volume declines.
On August 31, spot cumulative volume delta had fallen from $279.7 million to negative $67.2 million over seven days, while spot volume dropped 29.3%.
Bitcoin has already shown it can cross the threshold during a short, sharp decline.
Between August 28 and August 30, Bitcoin fell from above $81,000 to below $77,000.

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