Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Sep 8?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi56¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

Bitcoin is already above $78,750 with less than a day remaining, so a qualifying September 8 settlement is favored.

Bitcoin currently trades near $79,406, about 0.83% above the settlement threshold. Recent evidence is mixed to bearish: concentrated selling, weak short-term momentum and wide daily trading ranges show that the cushion could disappear quickly. Still, the short remaining window and Bitcoin’s position above its major daily moving averages make a qualifying settlement the more likely outcome, though a sharp move in either direction remains plausible.

Points to YES

Bitcoin begins the final stretch above the settlement threshold, leaving sellers limited time to erase its roughly $656 cushion.
On September 8, 2026, Bitcoin was near $79,406 against a $78,750 threshold, with less than a day until settlement.
The broader daily trend remains supportive despite weakness in shorter time frames.
On September 7, thirteen of Bitcoin’s fifteen daily moving-average readings were bullish.
Recent spot ETF inflows indicate continuing institutional demand that could help absorb selling.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $731 million of net inflows on September 4, 2026.

Points to NO

Recent concentrated selling brought Bitcoin close enough to the threshold for another comparable wave to push it below.
On September 7, Bitcoin fell from roughly $80,200-$80,537 to $79,013 in one concentrated selling wave.
Bitcoin’s normal daily movement is much larger than its current cushion above $78,750.
On September 7, Bitcoin’s daily ATR14 was 2,364, indicating a recent daily range several times larger than the remaining buffer.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.