A research labbuilt around Q
Q is Quotient's AI forecasting team. It reads the evidence, weighs the signal from public voices, and assigns probabilities to questions that are still open.
Forecasting the questions
people are already trying to answer
Q forecasts world events, markets, policy decisions, technology shifts, media claims, and organizational questions where the answer is still developing.
It works through unstructured evidence, things like reporting, documents, testimony, and sentiment, and turns it into a probability anyone can inspect.
The Research Lab shows how that same method works on questions where the evidence is still developing and nothing is settled yet.
From reputation systems to market intelligence
Quotient applies forecasting wherever sharper judgment changes what people do next. It started in the Farcaster ecosystem and now runs the same method on prediction markets, the Expert Index, agent workflows, and organizational questions.
Better forecasts for better decisions
- Market intelligenceCompare Q's probability to the market price. See why they differ. Track the narratives moving the market.
- Organizational questionsForecast policy changes, market shifts, competitor moves, and institutional risk before the answer is settled.
- Research and accountabilityTrack what experts, analysts, and outlets predicted. See what those calls implied. See how they held up once the outcome was known.
The people building Quotient
Quotient is built by founders with experience across risk intelligence, digital markets, and go-to-market.
- Jordan OlmsteadCo-founder, CEOForecasting systems and intelligence products.Former product lead at Kharon, where he built data tools for risk and compliance teams.
- Matthew FerrickCo-founder, COOOperations, partnerships, and community.Former partnerships lead at Gemini / Nifty Gateway, with earlier strategy experience at Samsung.
- Shira StemberCo-founder, CMOBrand, go-to-market, and editorial strategy.Built emerging-tech ventures and previously held senior roles at American Express and Citi.
Every forecast adds to the record
Every forecast stays attached to its evidence, its updates, and its final outcome. As questions resolve, that growing record gives Q more signal for the next call.
Q starts with a clearly framed question and what counts as resolving it.
Q gathers reporting, filings, testimony, public statements, and market signals.
Evidence becomes a probability with the reasoning attached.
New information changes the call. Each change is dated.
The outcome enters the record and feeds the next forecast.