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Proof of Edge

Missiles fell and the airspace stayed open. Q had read the resolution rules.

The market priced a closure at 49.5%. Q put it at 12%. Iranian missiles tested the call in June, and the airspace stayed open.

The call
Market priced
49.5%
Q forecast
12%
The edge
Israel's revised protocol absorbs missile fire with ground stops and passenger caps. The market was pricing a closure the resolution criteria excluded.
Total return if held to resolution
+97.7%
First 7 days
+63.4%
$1,000 at signal
→ $1,977

Assuming entry at the May 21 signal price (50.5¢ NO), a $1,000 NO position would have settled at about $1,977, before fees, slippage, or liquidity constraints.

How the call developedQ’s forecastPolymarket price

Probability Israel closes its airspace by June 30, %

050100Q123Market opensMay 12Signal publishedMay 21Resolved NOJul 1
1PBS NewsHourJun 7
Iran resumes missile fire

The first Iranian bombardment of Israel since the ceasefire that began in early April. The market jumped from 11.5% to 35.5% on the day.

2Haaretz · The Jerusalem PostJun 8
Ben-Gurion stays open under fire

Israel absorbed the barrage with ground stops and passenger caps, and kept flying: the thesis mechanism, observed. The market fell back to 23.5%.

3The Times of Israel · AxiosJun 11
Trump announces emerging Iran deal

Trump announced an emerging memorandum of understanding with Iran after a call with Netanyahu. Closure risk collapsed: the market fell from 40.5% to 15% and kept falling.

Sources reviewed

Reviewed 246 citations for this market. The call rests on the operational aviation record, OPSGROUP's Middle East airspace picture and EASA's conflict-zone bulletin, read against Israeli press coverage.

Primary record: OPSGROUP and EASA operational bulletins.

OPSGROUPEASAHaaretzThe Jerusalem PostThe Times of IsraelPBS NewsHourIsrael HayomGlobes

How Q tested it

Q tracked what would have to happen for Israel to actually close its airspace. The June barrages tested it, and none of it triggered.

Break conditionWhy it matteredResult
A barrage overwhelms localized managementEnough incoming fire would force a blanket shutdown. This was the market's YES case.Tested June 7 to 10, held
Israel reverts to the early-war closure playbookEarlier phases of the war saw sweeping closures at the onset of hostilities.Not observed
A closure that meets the market's barResolution required a broad shutdown across most civilian airspace. Ground stops and delays did not qualify.Resolved NO
Signal recordPublished May 21, 2026. Full reasoning archived at app.quotient.social/narrative/israels-revised-airspace-threshold-prevents-major-closures-fef99107e971

Quotient Signals is research and information, not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.