Q started on the wrong side of Neymar’s World Cup. Fifteen days later it flipped, before the market did.
Q’s first look on April 3 was 13%, the wrong side. On April 18 Q flipped to 57% and published the call, while the market still said 43%.
At the April 18 signal price of 43¢, a $1,000 YES position would have settled at about $2,324 at resolution, before fees and slippage. The wait was real. The position spent three weeks underwater, down as much as 20.9% and still down 10.5% after the first week, and the market did not durably cross 50 until the second week of May. Only a hold to resolution collected this return. A fixed-duration exit would have lost.
How the call developed
Probability Neymar plays in the World Cup, %
Q’s first look on April 3 was 13% with the market at 30.5%, the wrong side and further from the outcome than the market. The April 18 flip put Q at 57% against a market at 43%. By the last update on June 16 the market sat at 84 with Q at 60, so Q led the turn and trailed the finish.
Tap a numbered point to read its source.
Ancelotti submitted the 55-man preliminary list with Neymar among the forwards. The market moved from 43% on May 9 to 55% at the May 11 close.
View sourceAncelotti said Neymar was “improving a lot” and could play at the World Cup. The market moved from 52.5% to 69% by the May 14 close.
View sourceAncelotti announced the final 26-man squad in Rio with Neymar in it. The market moved from 80% to 94.5%.
View sourceWhat Q saw
The market was anchored on an early April disciplinary controversy. Ancelotti had publicly turned selection into a watchable test, two months to prove match fitness, and Neymar was passing it. He scored on April 14 and went the full 90 minutes days later. Q read a physical test being passed, priced like a coin flip weighted to failure. Q’s ceiling was 65%, and by June 16 the market at 84 was more confident than Q at 60. Q was right early and in print, never certain.
How Q tested it
Q tracked what would have broken the call. None of it triggered.
The entire thesis was that selection reduced to a physical test he was passing.
March reporting called the squad “quite defined” without him.
The market’s anchor was the referee controversy and suspension talk.
Sources reviewed
Reviewed 104 citations. Three fetched, dated reports carry the chart.
Only fetched, dated sources are chart-eligible.