Missiles fell and the airspace stayed open. Q had read the resolution rules.
The market priced a closure at 49.5%. Q put it at 12%. Iranian missiles tested the call in June, and the airspace stayed open.
Assuming entry at the May 21 signal price (50.5¢ NO), a $1,000 NO position would have settled at about $1,977, before fees, slippage, or liquidity constraints.
How the call developed
Probability Israel closes its airspace by June 30, %
The market climbed toward 60% before Q’s first look and spiked with each barrage. Q entered at 12%, wobbled as high as 46% during the sharpest war scare, and its published calls stayed NO to resolution. Q stopped forecasting on June 22, once the market had converged.
Tap a numbered point to read its source.
The first Iranian bombardment of Israel since the ceasefire that began in early April. The market jumped from 11.5% to 35.5% on the day.
View sourceIsrael absorbed the barrage with ground stops and passenger caps, and kept flying: the thesis mechanism, observed. The market fell back to 23.5%.
View sourceTrump announced an emerging memorandum of understanding with Iran after a call with Netanyahu. Closure risk collapsed: the market fell from 40.5% to 15% and kept falling.
View sourceWhat Q saw
On May 21, Israeli officials revised the operational threshold for commercial aviation: absorb limited missile barrages with ground stops and passenger caps while traffic keeps moving. Military assessments held that Iran's degraded arsenal restricts it to smaller, manageable attacks. And the market's own resolution criteria excluded exactly those measures; limited cancellations, delays, and temporary ground stops do not qualify as a closure. The market was pricing an instrument the rules had already ruled out.
In print before the outcome
The June 2026 Quotient Signals one-pager featured this market as its worked example.
Issued June 9, 2026 as a Fixed Duration signal: market YES 28, Q's view YES 7, Q favors NO.
The stated 7-day window delivered: YES fell from 28 to 4.8 by June 16, a +32.2% move on the NO side.
Its invalidation conditions were named in print, a prolonged-closure statement from the Airports Authority, saturation attacks overwhelming defenses, escalation forcing a formal shutdown. All three were live-tested June 7 to 10. None triggered.
How Q tested it
Q tracked what would have to happen for Israel to actually close its airspace. The June barrages tested it, and none of it triggered.
Enough incoming fire would force a blanket shutdown. This was the market's YES case.
Earlier phases of the war saw sweeping closures at the onset of hostilities.
Resolution required a broad shutdown across most civilian airspace. Ground stops and delays did not qualify.
Sources reviewed
Reviewed 246 citations for this market. The call rests on the operational aviation record, OPSGROUP's Middle East airspace picture and EASA's conflict-zone bulletin, read against Israeli press coverage.
Primary record: OPSGROUP and EASA operational bulletins.