The market gave up on Trump declassifying new UFO files by June 15. Q gave it 55%.
The market saw a delay and marked it down to 24%. Q saw the same delay and put it at 55%.
At the June 8 signal price of 24¢, a $1,000 YES position would have settled at $4,150 when the files dropped on June 12, before fees and slippage.
How the call developed
Probability new UFO files are declassified by June 15, %
After the missed cadence, the market priced it out. Q still gave the declassification materially higher odds at publish, and the files dropped on June 12.
Tap a numbered point to read its source.
The first two tranches landed May 8 and May 22. When the next release ran past early June, the market cut the odds to the low 20s. Q measured the missed 14-day target against the full 24-day window to June 15 and held higher.
View sourceThe Department of War published PURSUE Release 03, declassifying 72 new records (CIA Cold War files, FBI reports). The market resolved YES, three days before the deadline.
View sourceHow Q tested it
Q tracked what would have to go wrong for the files to miss June 15. None of it did.
A genuinely stalled program could not produce files in time.
Several agencies had to clear records before any release.
Re-releasing public material would not meet the market's new-files bar.
Sources reviewed
Reviewed 136 citations for this market. The call rests on the official Department of War disclosure record, read against national wire coverage.
Primary record: war.gov UAP releases.