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Proof of Edge

The market gave up on Trump declassifying new UFO files by June 15. Q gave it 55%.

The market saw a delay and marked it down to 24%. Q saw the same delay and put it at 55%.

The call
Market priced
24%
Q forecast
55%
The edge
The market mistook a delay for a dead program. The files were still in production.
Total return if held to resolution
+315%
Time to resolution
4 days
$1,000 at signal
→ $4,150

At the June 8 signal price of 24¢, a $1,000 YES position would have settled at $4,150 when the files dropped on June 12, before fees and slippage.

How the call developedQ’s forecastBefore signalPolymarket price

Probability new UFO files are declassified by June 15, %

050100Q12Q begins watchingMay 30Signal publishedJun 8Resolved YESJun 12
1Department of WarEarly Jun
Release cadence runs late

The first two tranches landed May 8 and May 22. When the next release ran past early June, the market cut the odds to the low 20s. Q measured the missed 14-day target against the full 24-day window to June 15 and held higher.

2Department of WarJun 12
Files declassified

The Department of War published PURSUE Release 03, declassifying 72 new records (CIA Cold War files, FBI reports). The market resolved YES, three days before the deadline.

Sources reviewed

Reviewed 136 citations for this market. The call rests on the official Department of War disclosure record, read against national wire coverage.

Primary record: war.gov UAP releases.

Department of WarDefenseScoopCNNNPRWashington PostNBC NewsFox NewsABC News

How Q tested it

Q tracked what would have to go wrong for the files to miss June 15. None of it did.

Break conditionWhy it matteredResult
The missed target meant a real haltA genuinely stalled program could not produce files in time.Stayed in active production
Interagency review overruns June 15Several agencies had to clear records before any release.Cleared, published June 12
The release repackages old filesRe-releasing public material would not meet the market's new-files bar.72 new records released
Signal recordPublished June 8, 2026. Full reasoning archived at app.quotient.social/narrative/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-june-15

Quotient Signals is research and information, not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.