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Proof of Edge

A deal headline sent the market vertical. Q re-published NO into the panic.

This was a timing call. The deal itself came weeks later and deferred asset relief exactly as Q’s May 22 narrative said it would. Q graded the deadline.

The call
Market priced
14.5%
Q forecast
6%
The edge
The framework’s own mechanics pushed asset relief past May 31.
Total return if held to resolution
+17.0%
First 7 days
−2.3%
$1,000 at signal
→ $1,170

At the May 11 signal price of 85.5¢, a $1,000 NO position was down 63.2% at the May 23 panic close and settled at about $1,170 at resolution, before fees and slippage. This was the smallest market in the series, with $904k of total volume.

How the call developedQ’s forecastPolymarket price

Probability Trump agrees to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31, %

050100Q’s call heldQ123Market opensApr 29Signal publishedMay 11Resolved NOJun 1
1AxiosMay 6
One-page memo to end the war

Axios reported the US and Iran closing in on a one-page memo to end the war. Unfreeze odds spiked from 16.5% to 36%, then faded.

2NPR · CNNMay 10
Trump rejects Iran’s counterproposal

Iran’s counter demanded blockade relief first and deferred nuclear concessions. Trump called it “totally unacceptable.” The market fell from 30.5% to 18.5%.

3NPR · CNBCMay 23
Trump says deal “largely negotiated”

Trump said an Iran deal was “largely negotiated.” Deal euphoria drove the market from 11.5% to a 68.5% close. Q re-published NO at 20% the next day.

Sources reviewed

Reviewed 125 citations for this market.

The call rests on dated wire reporting and official records.

Federal RegisterUK Commons LibraryAxiosNPRCNNCNBCTIMEAl Jazeera

What Q saw

Washington demanded nuclear concessions before sanctions relief. Tehran demanded blockade relief before nuclear talks. Any framework that bridged the gap did it procedurally, through a letter of intent that opened a 30-day and then a 60-day negotiation window, pushing a definitive asset agreement past May 31. The market read deal headlines as unfreeze now. The paperwork said unfreeze later.

How Q tested it

Q tracked the conditions that could have unfrozen assets inside May. None of them cleared before the deadline.

Break conditionWhy it matteredResult
A definitive unfreezing agreement in MayThe market resolved YES if the US agreed to release any frozen assets.Deferred to a 60-day window
The memo includes immediate releaseReports had floated a $20B cash-for-uranium structure.Not observed
Iran accepts nuclear-first sequencingFast capitulation could have unlocked asset relief inside May.Held Hormuz-first through May
Signal recordPublished May 11, 2026. Full case: quotient.social/proof-of-edge/unfreeze-assets

Quotient Signals is research and information, not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.