The deadline the market could not meet.
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by end of May?
Mines, insurance, ships, and routing all had to reset faster than the physical timeline allowed. Q’s fair price was 3¢. Polymarket priced YES at 68¢.
Assuming entry at the signal price (32¢ NO), a $1,000 NO position would have settled at about $3,123, before fees, slippage, or liquidity constraints.
How the call developed
Probability the Strait recovers by May 31, %
The market opened far above Q. After the signal it fell toward the call, and stayed there.
Tap a numbered point to read its source.
A weeks-long mine-clearance estimate made a May 31 traffic recovery hard to square with the physical reopening process.
View sourceA possible turn toward ending the war briefly lifted recovery odds, but Q stayed low because the shipping constraints had not cleared.
View sourceTrump said a Hormuz reopening deal was largely negotiated; the market briefly rebounded, then faded as recovery still failed to arrive.
View sourceWhat Q saw
Q saw a calendar problem. Recovery required the seven-day transit average to reach 60. At the signal, it was near 4.5. Insurance costs were still about five times normal, the US Navy’s mine-clearance effort was unfinished, and fleets diverted around the Cape of Good Hope needed time to return. Those steps had to happen in sequence before May 31.
How Q tested it
Q tracked the conditions that would have made a fast recovery possible. None moved quickly enough before the deadline.
Carriers could return quickly if insurance and official-risk signals improved.
Recovery could happen despite cost and danger if large fleets ignored the risk.
The market needed transit counts to move toward the 60-a-day threshold.
Sources reviewed
Reviewed 268 distinct sources across 99 domains.
Includes maritime intelligence, carrier advisories, wire coverage, and market sources.