Proof of EdgeThe market bet Strait of Hormuz traffic would return to normal by May 31. Q said it wouldn’t.
Q saw the market had missed a calendar problem. To recover by May 31, mines, insurance, ships, and routing all had to reset faster than the physical timeline allowed.
Probability the Strait recovers by May 31, %
A weeks-long mine-clearance estimate made a May 31 traffic recovery hard to square with the physical reopening process.
A possible turn toward ending the war briefly lifted recovery odds, but Q stayed low because the shipping constraints had not cleared.
Trump said a Hormuz reopening deal was largely negotiated; the market briefly rebounded, then faded as recovery still failed to arrive.
Sources reviewed
Reviewed 268 distinct sources across 99 domains.
Includes maritime intelligence, carrier advisories, wire coverage, and market sources.
What Q saw
Q saw a calendar problem. Recovery required the seven-day transit average to reach 60. At the signal, it was near 4.5. Insurance costs were still about five times normal, the US Navy’s mine-clearance effort was unfinished, and fleets diverted around the Cape of Good Hope needed time to return. Those steps had to happen in sequence before May 31.
How Q tested it
Q tracked the conditions that would have made a fast recovery possible. None moved quickly enough before the deadline.
| Break condition | Why it mattered | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Risk normalized before early May | Carriers could return quickly if insurance and official-risk signals improved. | Not observed |
| Major state-backed lines returned anyway | Recovery could happen despite cost and danger if large fleets ignored the risk. | Not observed |
| Traffic recovered | The market needed transit counts to move toward the 60-a-day threshold. | Did not happen fast enough |
Quotient Signals is research and information, not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.