Q stayed between 2% and 5% while uranium deal headlines moved the market.
The market traded $20.5 million and moved with each round of uranium deal news. Q’s forecasts stayed focused on the physical constraints and the May 31 deadline.
Assuming entry at the signal price (82¢ NO), a $1,000 NO position was down 1.8% after the first week and 11.6% at its worst point, then settled at about $1,220 at resolution, before fees, slippage, or liquidity constraints. Q republished NO four more times; the best re-issue, on April 18, returned +30.7%.
How the call developed
Probability the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, %
The market rose against the call for four days after the signal, then came around. Q’s line never left 2 to 5 percent, and Q stopped updating on April 23 once the outcome was settled.
Tap a numbered point to read its source.
The 21-hour Islamabad session collapsed. Iran explicitly rejected the US demand to retrieve its enriched uranium.
View sourceMediators insisted the door was not closed. Reports the US asked Iran to freeze enrichment for 20 years lifted the odds to their April 17 peak.
View sourceThe Iranian Foreign Ministry explicitly denied any nuclear-transfer agreement, killing the rumor at the peak.
View sourceWhat Q saw
Q read the physical timeline. Iran sealed the tunnel entrances at Isfahan with soil and debris on March 18, so a forcible recovery meant a multi-week military excavation. Even an agreed transfer required weeks of logistics, and blockade pressure takes months to become coercive. Iran’s position was explicit refusal. The market kept pricing diplomatic headlines. The calendar could not clear.
How Q tested it
Q tracked every path that could put the uranium in US hands before the deadline. None of them could clear in time.
A diplomatic transfer agreement was the fastest path to YES before May 31.
Military custody would satisfy the resolution criteria directly.
Uranium moved to Russia or the IAEA could arguably trigger possession.
Sources reviewed
Reviewed 114 citations across 43 distinct sources.
Includes satellite-imagery assessment, arms-control analysis, and wire coverage.